METHODOLOGY
Method & Data
The Authoritarian Populism Index has two parts. The quantitative index measures how electoral support for populist and authoritarian parties in Europe has changed over time and across countries. The qualitative analysis traces the rise of the parties that currently exert the greatest influence and classifies 76 of them on four dimensions.
01
How we classify parties
In each election, every party is assigned to one of seven party families: social democratic, green, liberal, Christian democratic, conservative, radical left or radical right. Radical left and radical right are broad umbrella categories, covering everything from democratic socialism and left-wing populism to Marxism-Leninism, and from national conservatism and right-wing populism to fascism.
The 76 most relevant challenger parties are also classified on four dimensions: economic policy (left, centre or right), sociocultural issues (progressive, moderate or conservative), Europe (pro-European, soft eurosceptic or hard eurosceptic) and authoritarianism (low, medium or high).
High authoritarianism is reserved for parties that, in theory or practice, show a willingness to undermine fundamental elements of liberal democracy, such as judicial independence, media pluralism, political opposition or free elections. Fidesz and PiS are examples, as are communist parties that have not broken with traditions hostile to pluralism. Medium identifies parties with genuine illiberal tendencies but insufficient evidence of fundamental hostility to democracy. Low does not mean the absence of populist rhetoric, only that it has not become a systemic challenge to liberal democracy. Classifications draw on behaviour as well as programmes, and attitudes towards Putin's Russia and the Trump administration are used as additional indicators.
02
What we deliberately exclude
Parties are included when they show strong populist or authoritarian characteristics, regardless of their size or time in government. This can include parties belonging to established mainstream families, such as Fidesz during its EPP membership, Romania's PSD and Progressive Bulgaria. Parties defined mainly by agrarian, pirate, regional, linguistic or ethnic identity are not included. Parties that are anti-establishment in rhetoric but liberal and pro-European in substance are treated as borderline and generally excluded.
Parties change over time. As a rule, a party's classification reflects its current position or, for parties that no longer exist, its position in the final phase of its existence. Classifications aim to be consistent with established academic and expert assessments; where the index differs, the report explains why.
03
What the index measures
Political parties typically pursue one or more of three general goals. The index studies how far populist parties have succeeded in reaching two of them.
Votes ✓
Measured through national election results
Office ✓
Measured through participation in government
Influence ✗
Influence on policy is beyond the scope of this index
These goals are logically compatible — increased voter support leads to influence and a more likely path to political positions — but parties sometimes have to prioritise between them.
04
Scope and coverage
COUNTRIES
31: all EU member states plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, from the point each became independent and held free and competitive elections (for example Greece from 1974, Croatia from 2000, Switzerland from 1971). Countries remain included if democracy later deteriorates.
PERIOD
All national parliamentary elections, 1945 to October 2026. European and regional elections are discussed in the report but not included in the index.
INCLUSION
Totals include every party with a known ideological affiliation, regardless of size. The party database lists parties that have won at least 1% of the national vote in at least one election (260 parties), plus seven smaller parties included for their relevance, 267 in total.
SPECIAL CASES
Where several elections are held in one year, only the last counts. Electoral alliances are assigned case by case. Challenger parties that fit neither left nor right (such as Italy's Five Star Movement) count in the overall total only.
05
How the yearly average works
Election results measure the demand for authoritarian populism. To give an easy-to-read overview of year-to-year changes, the European mean for each year is based on the most recent election in each country — a country's value carries forward until its next election.
The index answers: how many voters picked an authoritarian populist party as of the last election? The result does not depend on whether a country happened to hold an election in a given year.
Italy's 2022 election result, for example, determines Italy's values for 2022 to 2026 and remains in place until the next election.